OK, so I’m not gonna try to give an in-depth analysis of the debate. Mostly cause I just don’t have time. I have work at 8 tomorrow morning, and I need to get some sleep. So here are my quick points.

• I think the debate was a more or less a draw on points and style for someone watching it. The Gallup flash poll seems to confirm this. It said Kerry won by 2 in a sample that leans Republican, but that’s nothing to write home about compared to the first debate.
• Because it’s close, who “won” won’t matter right away. But the spin will matter going into the last debate.
• Kerry has far more to gain in the spin war than Bush. Take a look at Paul Begala’s liveblogging. I know Begala’s a partisan hack, but ultimately, a pundit’s liveblog is like a laundry list of the compact, easy spin points that will come out of this debate. Compare Begala with Novak, for example. I think you’ll find that Begala’s points play much more on the seeds of doubt about Bush that Kerry planted in the first debate.
• Expect a lot of talk about how Bush interrupted Charlie Gibson to avoid responding about the “backdoor draft.” Also expect a lot of talk about how Bush couldn’t or wasn’t willing to name a mistake, let alone three. Those are easy pickings for the Democrats.
• The flip-flopper stab is dead in the water for Republicans. They need to let go of this one fast, because it’s not going to get them anywhere and the more they use it, the more desparate they will sound.
• This Missouri audience had a clear socially conservative bent. However, with the exception of Southern Ohio and parts of Northern Florida, evangelicals are not a big force in most of the key swing states. Kerry answered both questions in a way that was respectful and not divisive. Even if it didn’t play as well with the room, expect those points to be an advantage for Kerry on the national stage.
• Bush wanted to appeal to his evangelical base, but he did a poor job ultimately. He said there was no litmus test for Supreme Court justices, he pointed out that he was the first president to fund stem-cell research, and he didn’t come out against all abortion, only public funding of abortion and partial birth abortion. I doubt he will do much better with evangelicals than in 2000.
• In spite of my points, the “undecided” voters in all the networks seemed to lean a bit for Bush. I’m not sure if this will mean a change in momentum, though I somewhat doubt it. In truth, I think that by now the undecided voters are so few that they are poor bellweathers, and that this election will be about turnout. On the other hand, turnout is all about momentum too.
• I have never been more sure that we talk past each other in America these days. I don’t know if there’s much I can do about it. But expect me to be working to break down that barrier at Wegmans tomorrow. Talking politics with customers is so much fun!

Ok, so that was longer than I said it would be.

If you want to see where I get my ideas, check out dailykos and white male consumer.

Posted on October 9th, 2004 by Lee
Tagged: Politics