Nobody likes a pollster.

Or apparently so. This morning I had work bright and early at 8 AM. Since the store is nearly empty at that time, and since I invariably get placed alone in the café part of the store on mornings like this, I decided to do something to keep me a little more occupied. I conducted an informal poll.

The question was simple: “Who do you think is going to win the election tomorrow?” I figured it was a question that was non-inflammatory, non-partisan, and didn’t require anyone to say anything about their political opinions. Moreover, any Ithacan will tell you that this town is the most unrepresentative sample ever, so asking who people were planning to vote for wouldn’t tell me anything. I figured this would be the more interesting question, the safer one, and hopefully the more enlightening.

So what happened? Well, for awhile everything was going well. I had a good sample, with a lot of people complimenting my idea and saying they liked the question. I asked everyone that came through, from various people grabbing food on their way to work to the store manager. Some people divulged their own opinions, but I made it clear that I was only interested in who they thought would win. I didn’t say who I thought would win unless asked, and then I simply stated Kerry, without mentioning my politics. A couple people wanted to be sure that it was me asking the question and not the store, but no one seemed upset or unhappy with the question.

My goal was to mimic, on a smaller scale, something like the Iowa Electronic Markets. The idea being that it’s not who individuals in the market want to win, but who they think will win that best predicts the winner.

But then about 10:30 my boss came by and asked me to stop. She said there had been a customer complaint, and that she didn’t want me to solicit customers in any way. I made it clear that I was not asking for anyone’s personal opinion on the candidates, the issues, or their voting plans, but I agreed to stop.

I don’t blame my boss. I didn’t want to cause anyone any headaches as a result of this little poll. But it’s a sad statement that some people are offended by discussing politics openly, even in the most innocuous of situations. How can we expect to unify a polarized America if we can’t even acknowledge that politics exist and that sometimes people have different opinions about them?

As for the results I got, they seemed pretty clear. Twenty-six thought Bush will win, eleven thought Kerry, and sixteen said they don’t know. Of those who chose to say something about their preference, I noted anecdotally that a lot of Kerry voters seemed to lack confidence that he’ll win. Bush voters, on the other hand, seemed a lot more confident in their man.

Maybe this means something. Or, in their portrayal of confidence, do the voters simply mimic the candidates? I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

Posted on November 1st, 2004 by Lee
Filed under: Uncategorized